Can Migration exorcise the Malthusian Ghost?

Can Sustainable Development Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth for all be achieved? Venkataraman Ganesh reports from the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC).

Sustainable Development Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth was at the centre of discussion during the fourth session of the high level political forum (HLPF) on sustainable development 2018. The discussion saw member-nations raise points about the interconnectedness of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and the Malthusian spectre of overpopulation and its effect on achieving the SDGs.

The discussion on Goal 8 started with the Delegate of the Republic of Cameroon positing that achieving Goal 8 was the key to ensuring that Goal 1: No Poverty and Goal 2: No Hunger were achieved. This idea of interconnections between various goals was also posited by the Delegates of the People’s Republic of China (China) and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (Afghanistan). The Delegate of China put forth that achieving Goal 4: Quality Education was necessary to achieve Goal 8. This claim was supported by the Delegate of Afghanistan – according to the Delegate, Goals 1 and 2 needed to be tackled first followed by Goal 4 and then Goals 6 and 8.

The impact of overpopulation on the implementation of the SDGs was first raised by the Delegate of the Republic of South Africa (South Africa), with the Delegate of the Commonwealth of Australia (Australia) following suit. Both posited that overpopulation in countries like the Republic of India (India) and the People’s Republic of China were impediments to achieving the SDGs, and in this, they were drawing upon Malthusian economic theory. Thomas Robert Malthus, an English scholar, had posited in 1798 that periods of economic prosperity would necessarily be followed by periods of food scarcity due to the fact that population grows geometrically when compared to growth of food production. This idea of Malthus was picked up by neo-Malthusians in the 20th century. The neo-Malthusians propose population-control as an effective check to ensure sustainability, and it is this idea that the Delegates of Australia and South Africa put forth today[i].

A solution to the problem of overpopulation was posited by the Delegate of the French Republic. The Delegate of the French Republic noted that member-nations such as Japan had an ageing population and needed young people to continue growing while other nations such as India faced a problem of overpopulation. This being the case, the Delegate proposed that Japan and India ought to come to an agreement on immigration of Indians to Japan. This, according to the Delegate, would solve the problems of both Japan and India while ensuring a sustainable future.

The proposal of the Delegate of the French Republic, while logical, will be difficult to implement given that immigration is a contentious issue amongst many high income countries that have an aging population. The election of President Trump and the referendum on Brexit have both been in part due to an anti-immigration stance finding currency amongst the populations of the United States of America[ii] and the United Kingdom[iii], and this being the case, it remains to be seen how seriously the HLPF will take this suggestion.

[i] https://people.stanford.edu/ranabr/sites/default/files/malthusian_and_neo_malthusian1_for_webpage_040731.pdf

[ii] https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/Immigration-Reform-Trump.pdf

[iii] http://www.cer.eu/sites/default/files/bulletin_105_st_article1.pdf